Academy Awards 2026: Here are my predictions for who will win on Oscar night
The prognosticators have called this year’s races for the Academy Awards some of the tightest and most unpredictable in ages.
Here are my predictions for who will win at the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday. And I include comments on how I would have voted if I was an Academy member.
Best Picture
Nominees: “Bugonia,” “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners,” “Train Dreams.”
Who will win: “One Battle After Another.”
Who should win: “One Battle After Another,” though it’s a close call with “Sinners.” Two great movies that speak to the state of the world today, and the Academy will likely give plenty of statuettes to both.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”; Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”; Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”; Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent.”
Who will win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners.”
Who should win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners,” who carries the movie’s emotional weight in the dual role.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”; Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”; Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”; Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”; Emma Stone, “Bugonia.”
Who will win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet.”
Who should win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet,” holding all the anguish of a mother losing her child, and the release when seeing how her playwright husband has channeled that grief.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”; Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”; Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”; Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”; Stellan Skarsgåard, “Sentimental Value.”
Who will win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another.”
Who should win: Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another.” It’s hard to believe Del Toro and Penn are on the same planet, let alone the same movie — and Del Toro rides the movie’s waves like a pro surfer.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”; Amy Madigan, “Weapons”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”; Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another.”
Who will win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons.”
Who should win: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners,” who adds an underlayer of sadness and soul to the genre-busting thriller.
Directing
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”; Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”; Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”; Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”; Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet.”
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another.”
Who should win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners,” for creating a movie with a much higher degree of difficulty — historical drama, vampire thriller, musical — and nailing it.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees: Will Tracy, “Bugonia”; Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein”; Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell, “Hamnet”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”; Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar, “Train Dreams.”
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another.”
Who should win: Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar, “Train Dreams,” for crafting a brilliant jewel of a movie about man and nature.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees: Robert Kaplow, “Blue Moon”; Jafar Panahi with collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, “It Was Just an Accident”; Ronald Bernstein & Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”; Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”; Ryan Coogler, “Sinners.”
Who will win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners.”
Who should win: Jafar Panahi & company, “It Was Just an Accident,” for balancing terror, humor and trauma.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: “Arco”; “Elio”; “KPop Demon Hunters”; “Little Amelie or the Character of Rain”; “Zootopia 2.”
Who will win: “KPop Demon Hunters.”
Who should win: “Little Amelie or the Character of Rain,” a beautiful memory play of cross cultures, and the best in a somewhat light year for great animation.
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees: “The Alabama Solution”; “Come See Me in the Good Light”; “Cutting Through Rocks”; “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”; “The Perfect Neighbor.”
Who will win: “The Perfect Neighbor.”
Who should win: I can’t say here, as I haven’t seen “Cutting Through Rocks” and “Mr. Nobody Against Putin.”
International Feature Film
Nominees: “It Was Just an Accident” (France); “The Secret Agent” (Brazil); “Sentimental Value” (Norway); “Sirat” (Spain); “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia).
Who will win: “Sentimental Value.”
Who should win: “It Was Just an Accident” was one of the best movies of 2025, though “The Voice of Hind Rajab” is darn close.
Casting
Nominees: “Hamnet”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “The Secret Agent”; “Sinners.”
Who will win: “Sinners.”
Who should win: “Sinners.” Not sure what criteria is best in this new category, but I’m going with choosing the movie with the most fascinating ensemble.
Cinematography
Nominees: Dan Laustsen, "Frankenstein"; Darius Khondji, "Marty Supreme"; Michael Bauman, "One Battle After Another"; Autumn Durald Arkapaw, "Sinners"; Adolpho Veloso, "Train Dreams."
Who will win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, “Sinners.”
Who should win: Adolpho Veloso, “Train Dreams,” for its gorgeous and evocative images of the Pacific Northwest.
Costume Design
Nominees: Deborah L. Scott, "Avatar: Fire and Ash"; Kate Hawley, "Frankenstein"; Malgosia Turzanska, "Hamnet"; Miyako Bellizzi, "Marty Supreme"; Ruth E. Carter, "Sinners."
Who will win: “Frankenstein.”
Who should win: “Sinners,” because Ruth E. Carter is a true artist whose designs are subtle commentary on race in the last century.
Film Editing
Nominees: Stephen Mirrione, "F1"; Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, "Marty Supreme"; Andy Jurgensen, "One Battle After Another"; Olivier Bugge Coutté, "Sentimental Value"; Michael P. Shawver, "Sinners."
Who will win: “One Battle After Another.”
Who should win: “Sinners,” which is so precisely put together.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: “Frankenstein”; “Kokuho”; “Sinners”; “The Smashing Machine”; “The Ugly Stepsister.”
Who will win: “Frankenstein.”
Who should win: “The Ugly Stepsister," where the body horror makeup work is freakishly beautiful. Disclaimer: I never saw “Kokuho.”
Music (Original Score)
Nominees: Jerskin Fendrix, "Bugonia"; Alexandre Desplat, "Frankenstein"; Max Richter, "Hamnet"; Jonny Greenwood, "One Battle After Another"; Ludwig Goransson, "Sinners."
Who will win: “Sinners.”
Who should win: “Sinners,” where the music is integral to the story. However, Jonny Greenwood’s work in “One Battle After Another” deserves it, too.
Music (Original Song)
Nominees: "Dear Me," from "Diane Warren: Relentless"; "Golden," from "KPop Demon Hunters"; "I Lied to You," from "Sinners"; "Sweet Dreams of Joy," from "Viva Verdi!"; "Train Dreams," from "Train Dreams."
Who will win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters.”
Who should win: Disclaimer: I haven’t heard the songs from the Diane Warren documentary or the song from “Viva Verdi!” But I’d still say “Golden,” an infectiously bouncy pop anthem.
Production Design
Nominees: “Frankenstein”; “Hamnet”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “Sinners.”
Who will win: “Frankenstein.”
Who should win: “Marty Supreme,” for perfectly capturing the ‘50s craziness that matches Marty’s wild ambitions.
Sound
Nominees: “F1”; “Frankenstein”; “One Battle After Another”; “Sinners”; “Sirat.”
Who will win: “F1.”
Who should win: “Sirat,” where the sound mix gets you in the heart.
Visual Effects
Nominees: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”; “F1”; “Jurassic World Rebirth”; “The Lost Bus”; “Sinners.”
Who will win: “Avatar: FIre and Ash.”
Who should win: “F1,” which made you feel like you were in the driver’s seat. Disclaimer: I never saw “The Lost Bus.”
Documentary Short Film
Nominees: “All the Empty Rooms”; “Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”; “Children No More: ‘Were and Are Gone’”; “The Devil Is Busy”; “Perfectly a Strangeness.”
Who will win: “All the Empty Rooms.”
Who should win: “The Devil Is Busy,” which effectively digs into the rank unfairness of America’s reproductive health system, where your pay stub and your zip code determine the help you can get.
Animated short film
Nominees: “Butterfly”; “Forevergreen”; “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”; “Retirement Plan”; “The Three Sisters.”
Who will win: “Butterfly.”
Who should win: “Butterfly,” a luminously artistic work that’s practically a mini-documentary biographic portrait of a Holocaust survivor.
Live Action Short Film
Nominees: “Butcher’s Stain”; “A Friend of Dorothy”; “Jane Austen’s Period Drama”; “The Singers”; “Two People Exchanging Saliva.”
Who will win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva.”
Who should win: “Jane Austen’s Period Drama,” which is not just sharply funny but also a smart commentary on the nonsense women endure about which men have no clue.