Update: How did I do? I scored 15 correct out of 23. Not great, but pretty good.
Why did I miss the ones I missed? Mostly underestimating the haul for “All Quiet on the Western Front,” a movie I didn’t like that much, in the craft categories (Production Design, Music - Original Score), or not picking Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,” a movie I didn’t like at all.
I thought it would be a toss-up between Jamie Lee Curtis and Angela Bassett for their category, and I coin-flipped toward Bassett. A different coin-flip put me off of the Oscar that “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” actually won: Ruth Carter for her costume work.
What I got right: Picture, Director, Actress in a Leading Role, Actor in a Supporting Role, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Music - Original Song, Visual Effects, Sound, International Film, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Animated Short Film.
What I got wrong: Actor in a Leading Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Music - Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Live Action Short, Documentary Short Film.
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For me, the Oscars are like family — in that I can complain about all their shortcomings, but will robustly defend them from attacks from outsiders.
Yes, the awards are capricious and self-serving, and often reflect popularity rather than merit. And, yes, ceremony is cheesy, overly long, and too dependent on catastrophe for entertainment purposes. (Recent examples: Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway saying “La La Land” instead of “Moonlight,” or Will Smith physically assaulting Chris Rock and still being allowed to receive his award a few minutes later.)
They serve a function, though. The Oscars allow us — and by “us,” I mean the subsection of America and the world that still cares about movies — to have conversations about films that aren’t being measured by their box-office haul or by how many post-credit scenes are hyping a franchise’s next installment. We get to talk about movies that are good, that made us feel real feelings, or made us swoon and fall in love with movies all over again.
Part of the fun is guessing who’s going to win. I’ve been doing that for decades, and I’m not going to stop now. Here are my predictions of what films will win in the 23 categories — all of which will be telecast live, ending last year’s dismal experiment — and the ones I would have voted for if I were an Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences member.
I’ll be in front of the TV on Sunday night — 6 p.m. Mountain time on ABC (KTVX, Ch. 4 in Utah) — seeing how well my prognostication gifts are.
Part 1: Technical categories
Sound
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte; “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges; “The Batman,” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson; “Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller; “Top Gun: Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor.
What will win: Oscar voters will want to give some awards to “Top Gun: Maverick,” which they consider the movie that saved theatrical distribution of movies.
What I’d vote for: The whooshing jets of “Top Gun: Maverick,” narrowly over the rock ’n’ roll explosion of “Elvis.”
Visual Effects
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar; “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett; “The Batman,” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick; “Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher.
What will win: Oscar voters can’t deny the spectacle of “Avatar: The Way of Water.”
What I’d vote for: The only reason to go back to Pandora was to see the sights; “Avatar” takes it.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen; “Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers; “Tár,” Monika Willi; “Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton.
What will win: Expect a good night for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
What I’d vote for: The multiverse-spanning scenes in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” were blazing in their speed but always coherent.
Cinematography
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend; “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji; “Elvis,” Mandy Walker; “Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins; “Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister.
What will win: The wartime scenes of “All Quiet on the Western Front” could take this one.
What I’d vote for: Mandy Walker brilliantly captured the kaleidoscopic view of Elvis Presley’s life, from Tupelo to Vegas. Give it to “Elvis.” (Bonus: If Walker wins, she’d be the first woman to ever take this category.)
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Part 2: Craft categories
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová; “The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow; “Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti; “The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley.
What will win: The easy pick is “The Whale,” for Brendan Fraser’s fat suit, but I’m going to predict that “Elvis” pulls an upset for giving us thin and fat Elvises.
What I’d vote for: From Elvis’ pompadour to whatever is happening to Tom Hanks’ face, I’d go with “Elvis.”
Costume Design
Nominees: “Babylon,” Mary Zophres; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter; “Elvis,” Catherine Martin; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata; “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan.
What will win: Another craft win for “Elvis.”
What I’d vote for: I liked Ruth Carter’s Afro-futurist designs in the first “Black Panther” movie (for which she deservedly won) and admired them again in the sequel, but I have a soft spot for the whimsical Dior-inspired looks in “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris.”
Production Design
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” production design: Christian M. Goldbeck; set decoration: Ernestine Hipper; “Avatar: The Way of Water,” production design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; set decoration: Vanessa Cole; “Babylon,” production design: Florencia Martin; set decoration: Anthony Carlino; “Elvis,” production design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; set decoration: Bev Dunn; “The Fabelmans,” production design: Rick Carter; set decoration: Karen O’Hara.
What will win: It’s one of those categories where “best” means “most,” and there were few movies that were more movie than “Babylon.”
What I’d vote for: The ‘50s and ‘60s retro home design of “The Fabelmans” was subtly beautiful.
Music - Original Song
Nominees: “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” music and lyric by Diane Warren; “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” music and lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop; “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler; “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” music by M.M. Keeravaani; lyric by Chandrabose; “This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne.
What will win: In most years, Lady Gaga (for the song from “Top Gun: Maverick”) vs. Rihanna (for her part of the song from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) would look like the marquee match-up. But the energetic “Naatu Naatu” from the groundbreaking Bollywood epic “RRR” is too powerful to resist.
What I’d vote for: “Naatu Naatu” is the only one of these I’d want to listen to more than once — though, in the same movie, N.T. Rama Rao Jr.’s ballad “Komuram Bheemudo,” when his character is being tortured, is even better, but wasn’t nominated.
Music - Original Score
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann; “Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz; “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux; “The Fabelmans,” John Williams.
What will win: The sonic assault of musical styles of “Babylon” is the one undeniably great thing about this wildly uneven movie.
What I’d vote for: Carter Burwell, so reliably good for so long, should get it for the Irish-inflected score to “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
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Part 3: Specialty categories
Animated Short Film
Nominees: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud; “The Flying Sailor,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby; “Ice Merchants,” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano; “My Year of Dicks,” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon; “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It,” Lachlan Pendragon.
What will win: Tough call in a solid category, which is why I’m afraid the least of the five — the beautifully drawn for aphorism-heavy “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” — might take it.
What I’d vote for: “Ice Merchants” has the single most beautiful final image in film of 2022, but I’d pick the meta-story of “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It.” Though I’d be happy if the surprising and artful “My Year of Dicks” wins, just to make the presenter have to say it out loud.
Documentary Short Film
Nominees: “The Elephant Whisperers,” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga;“Haulout,” Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev; “How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt; “The Martha Mitchell Effect,” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison; “Stranger at the Gate,” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones.
What will win: The well-told yarn “Stranger at the Gate,” about a potential hate crime that takes a surprising turn, seems likely to win — particularly because it has Malala Yousefzai, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, stumping for it as executive producer.
What I’d vote for: “Haulout,” about a researcher in Siberia who goes out where the walruses are, is a nearly wordless film that nails the power of the image.
Live Action Short
Nominees: “An Irish Goodbye,” Tom Berkeley and Ross White; “Ivalu,” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan; “Le Pupille,” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón; “Night Ride,” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen; “The Red Suitcase,” Cyrus Neshvad.
What will win: “Le Pupille” is a charming story about children in a Catholic orphanage, and benefits from big names behind the camera (Alfonso Cuarón is one of the producers) and the backing of Disney (you can stream it on Disney+).
What I’d vote for: “The Red Suitcase,” about an Iranian teen girl arriving in Luxembourg and trying to evade the man waiting to fulfill an arranged marriage, is a perfect thriller.
Animated Feature
Nominees: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley; “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey; “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift; “The Sea Beast,” Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger; “Turning Red,” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins.
What will win: Another strong category, but the stop-motion artistry of “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio” has a lock.
What I’d vote for: My favorite animated movie of the year is “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” one of the few movies of 2022 that made me erupt in laughter and in tears.
Documentary Feature
Nominees: “All That Breathes,” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer; “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov; “Fire of Love,” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman; “A House Made of Splinters,” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström; “Navalny,” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris.
What will win: Voting for “Navalny,” which follows the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny as he tracks down the people who poisoned him, is a way for Academy members to show their displeasure for Vladimir Putin.
What I’d vote for: Laura Poitras’ insistent “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” which chronicles the artist Nan Goldin’s extraordinary life and her determined takedown of the Sackler family for trying to whitewash their role in causing the opioid crisis by paying museums to put their name on buildings.
International Film
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany); “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina); “Close” (Belgium); “EO” (Poland); “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland).
What will win: The only one of these five with another nomination is “All Quiet on the Western Front,” and it has eight of them, including Best Picture. It’s sure to win here.
What I’d vote for: Director Jerzy Skolimowski’s heartbreakingly beautiful “EO,” following a donkey through a journey of hard knocks, is my favorite of these five.
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Part 4: The majors
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque); “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” written by Rian Johnson (based on characters created by Rian Johnson); “Living,” written by Kazuo Ishiguro (based on Akira Kurosawa’s film “Ikiru,” written by Akira Kurosawa & Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni); “Top Gun: Maverick,” screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks (based on characters created by Jim Cash & Jack Epps Jr.); “Women Talking,” screenplay by Sarah Polley (based on the book by Miriam Toews).
What will win: Sarah Polley’s script for “Women Talking” is winning the precursor awards that usually indicate an Oscar win.
What I’d vote for: “Women Talking” was my second favorite movie of 2022, and Polley’s precise, moving screenplay is a big reason why. It’s by far the best thing in an otherwise weak category.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” written by Martin McDonagh; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert; “The Fabelmans,” written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner; “Tár,” written by Todd Field; “Triangle of Sadness,” written by Ruben Östlund.
What will win: The “most” screenplay here is “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” It’s got the win, narrowly over McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
What I’d vote for: My favorite movie of 2022 was “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and the sheer inventiveness of the Daniels’ screenplay is a big part of that.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson,“The Banshees of Inisherin”; Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”; Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”; Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Who will win: Ke Huy Quan has been the prohibitive favorite in this category throughout awards season, as much for his personal story — a former child actor who quit the business for 20 years, then lucked into the role of a lifetime — as for his multifaceted performance.
Who I’d vote for: Ke Huy Quan is bloody amazing in “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” playing multiple versions of the same character, as nerdy husband, martial-arts hero, tragic romantic figure and more.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”; Hong Chau, “The Whale”; Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Who will win: It’s between two veteran actors, either one would be considered a career-achievement prize: Bassett or Curtis. Leaning toward Bassett.
Who I’d vote for: Hsu, as the dejected daughter and scourge of the multiverse, brought a lot of layers to her breakout role, and would get my vote. (Side note: Hong Chau should have been nominated for “The Menu,” not for “The Whale,” just for the way she says “tortillas.”)
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Austin Butler, “Elvis”; Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”; Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”; Bill Nighy, “Living.”
Who will win: Fraser has been called a lock since “The Whale” came out, but I think the weaknesses in the rest of the film may work against him — and Butler’s fully inhabited portrayal of Elvis Presley may take it, especially for Academy voters who like performances that perfectly copy the mannerisms of somebody famous (e.g., Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody,” Gary Oldman in “Darkest Hour,” etc.).
Who I’d vote for: The longest of long shots, Paul Mescal as the desperate-to-please dad in “Aftersun” is the performance that sticks long after the others are forgotten.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, “Tár”; Ana de Armas, “Blonde”; Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”; Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”; Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Who will win: For Academy voters, it comes down to Blanchett’s imperious conductor vs. Yeoh’s everywoman laundromat owner. The precursor awards suggest Yeoh will take it.
Who I’d vote for: Michelle Yeoh, who has a lifetime of stellar performances in Hong Kong cinema and Hollywood, channels everything she’s ever done into this shape-shifting performance.
Director
Nominees: Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”; Todd Field, “Tár”; Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness.”
Who will win: The Daniels have this one in the bag. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” wins here, too.
Who I’d vote for: The inventiveness of the Daniels, giving life to google-eyed rocks and swaying piñatas, is boundless.
Best Picture
Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Women Talking.”
What will win: Almost never does a film win all the precursor guild awards — Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild and Screen Actors Guild — as “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has and not take the Oscar for Best Picture. So “Everything” wins the big prize.
Who I’d vote for: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” gives everything you can think of in one movie, and then adds more. It’s a visual, cerebral and emotional spectacle, and works better than a movie this deep should.
