My list of the 10 best movies of 2023 — and the 10 worst

Why do critics write top 10 lists at the end of the year?

For me, it’s an organizing system – a way to summarize the year we’ve just experienced, and think back on the truly great films.

So why write a list of the bottom 10 movies?

Sure, making a movie is a difficult endeavor — if it were easy, everybody would do it — and everyone goes in with the best of intentions. No filmmaker goes into the process planning to make a bad movie.

But for me, as a critic, listing the worst movies of the year is cathartic and therapeutic. It’s a cleansing, because I can write about the bad movies one last time — and then I never have to think about them again.

Here, from sltrib.com, are my top — and bottom – 10 movies of 2023. The best of the best, as the photo tells you, is director Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things,” capped by the best performance of Emma Stone’s career.

My Oscar predictions: 'Everything' and more on Sunday night.

Update: How did I do? I scored 15 correct out of 23. Not great, but pretty good.

Why did I miss the ones I missed? Mostly underestimating the haul for “All Quiet on the Western Front,” a movie I didn’t like that much, in the craft categories (Production Design, Music - Original Score), or not picking Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,” a movie I didn’t like at all.

I thought it would be a toss-up between Jamie Lee Curtis and Angela Bassett for their category, and I coin-flipped toward Bassett. A different coin-flip put me off of the Oscar that “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” actually won: Ruth Carter for her costume work.

What I got right: Picture, Director, Actress in a Leading Role, Actor in a Supporting Role, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Music - Original Song, Visual Effects, Sound, International Film, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Animated Short Film.

What I got wrong: Actor in a Leading Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Music - Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Live Action Short, Documentary Short Film.
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For me, the Oscars are like family — in that I can complain about all their shortcomings, but will robustly defend them from attacks from outsiders.

Yes, the awards are capricious and self-serving, and often reflect popularity rather than merit. And, yes, ceremony is cheesy, overly long, and too dependent on catastrophe for entertainment purposes. (Recent examples: Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway saying “La La Land” instead of “Moonlight,” or Will Smith physically assaulting Chris Rock and still being allowed to receive his award a few minutes later.)

They serve a function, though. The Oscars allow us — and by “us,” I mean the subsection of America and the world that still cares about movies — to have conversations about films that aren’t being measured by their box-office haul or by how many post-credit scenes are hyping a franchise’s next installment. We get to talk about movies that are good, that made us feel real feelings, or made us swoon and fall in love with movies all over again.

Part of the fun is guessing who’s going to win. I’ve been doing that for decades, and I’m not going to stop now. Here are my predictions of what films will win in the 23 categories — all of which will be telecast live, ending last year’s dismal experiment — and the ones I would have voted for if I were an Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences member.

I’ll be in front of the TV on Sunday night — 6 p.m. Mountain time on ABC (KTVX, Ch. 4 in Utah) — seeing how well my prognostication gifts are.

Part 1: Technical categories

Sound

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte; “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges; “The Batman,” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson; “Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller; “Top Gun: Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor.

What will win: Oscar voters will want to give some awards to “Top Gun: Maverick,” which they consider the movie that saved theatrical distribution of movies.

What I’d vote for: The whooshing jets of “Top Gun: Maverick,” narrowly over the rock ’n’ roll explosion of “Elvis.”

Visual Effects

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar; “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett; “The Batman,” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick; “Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher.

What will win: Oscar voters can’t deny the spectacle of “Avatar: The Way of Water.”

What I’d vote for: The only reason to go back to Pandora was to see the sights; “Avatar” takes it.

Best Film Editing

Nominees: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen; “Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers; “Tár,” Monika Willi; “Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton.

What will win: Expect a good night for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

What I’d vote for: The multiverse-spanning scenes in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” were blazing in their speed but always coherent.

Cinematography

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend; “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji; “Elvis,” Mandy Walker; “Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins; “Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister.

What will win: The wartime scenes of “All Quiet on the Western Front” could take this one.

What I’d vote for: Mandy Walker brilliantly captured the kaleidoscopic view of Elvis Presley’s life, from Tupelo to Vegas. Give it to “Elvis.” (Bonus: If Walker wins, she’d be the first woman to ever take this category.)

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Part 2: Craft categories

Makeup and Hairstyling 

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová; “The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow; “Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti; “The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley.

What will win: The easy pick is “The Whale,” for Brendan Fraser’s fat suit, but I’m going to predict that “Elvis” pulls an upset for giving us thin and fat Elvises.

What I’d vote for: From Elvis’ pompadour to whatever is happening to Tom Hanks’ face, I’d go with “Elvis.”

Costume Design 

Nominees: “Babylon,” Mary Zophres; “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter; “Elvis,” Catherine Martin; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata; “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan.

What will win: Another craft win for “Elvis.”

What I’d vote for: I liked Ruth Carter’s Afro-futurist designs in the first “Black Panther” movie (for which she deservedly won) and admired them again in the sequel, but I have a soft spot for the whimsical Dior-inspired looks in “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris.”

Production Design 

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” production design: Christian M. Goldbeck; set decoration: Ernestine Hipper; “Avatar: The Way of Water,” production design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; set decoration: Vanessa Cole; “Babylon,” production design: Florencia Martin; set decoration: Anthony Carlino; “Elvis,” production design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; set decoration: Bev Dunn; “The Fabelmans,” production design: Rick Carter; set decoration: Karen O’Hara.

What will win: It’s one of those categories where “best” means “most,” and there were few movies that were more movie than “Babylon.”

What I’d vote for: The ‘50s and ‘60s retro home design of “The Fabelmans” was subtly beautiful.

Music - Original Song 

Nominees: “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” music and lyric by Diane Warren; “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” music and lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop; “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler; “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” music by M.M. Keeravaani; lyric by Chandrabose; “This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne.

What will win: In most years, Lady Gaga (for the song from “Top Gun: Maverick”) vs. Rihanna (for her part of the song from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) would look like the marquee match-up. But the energetic “Naatu Naatu” from the groundbreaking Bollywood epic “RRR” is too powerful to resist.

What I’d vote for: “Naatu Naatu” is the only one of these I’d want to listen to more than once — though, in the same movie, N.T. Rama Rao Jr.’s ballad “Komuram Bheemudo,” when his character is being tortured, is even better, but wasn’t nominated.

Music - Original Score 

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann; “Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz; “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux; “The Fabelmans,” John Williams.

What will win: The sonic assault of musical styles of “Babylon” is the one undeniably great thing about this wildly uneven movie.

What I’d vote for: Carter Burwell, so reliably good for so long, should get it for the Irish-inflected score to “The Banshees of Inisherin.”

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Part 3: Specialty categories

Animated Short Film

Nominees: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud; “The Flying Sailor,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby; “Ice Merchants,” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano; “My Year of Dicks,” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon; “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It,” Lachlan Pendragon.

What will win: Tough call in a solid category, which is why I’m afraid the least of the five — the beautifully drawn for aphorism-heavy “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” — might take it.

What I’d vote for: “Ice Merchants” has the single most beautiful final image in film of 2022, but I’d pick the meta-story of “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It.” Though I’d be happy if the surprising and artful “My Year of Dicks” wins, just to make the presenter have to say it out loud.

Documentary Short Film 

Nominees: “The Elephant Whisperers,” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga;“Haulout,” Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev; “How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt; “The Martha Mitchell Effect,” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison; “Stranger at the Gate,” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones.

What will win: The well-told yarn “Stranger at the Gate,” about a potential hate crime that takes a surprising turn, seems likely to win — particularly because it has Malala Yousefzai, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, stumping for it as executive producer.

What I’d vote for: “Haulout,” about a researcher in Siberia who goes out where the walruses are, is a nearly wordless film that nails the power of the image.

Live Action Short

Nominees: “An Irish Goodbye,” Tom Berkeley and Ross White; “Ivalu,” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan; “Le Pupille,” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón; “Night Ride,” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen; “The Red Suitcase,” Cyrus Neshvad.

What will win: “Le Pupille” is a charming story about children in a Catholic orphanage, and benefits from big names behind the camera (Alfonso Cuarón is one of the producers) and the backing of Disney (you can stream it on Disney+).

What I’d vote for: “The Red Suitcase,” about an Iranian teen girl arriving in Luxembourg and trying to evade the man waiting to fulfill an arranged marriage, is a perfect thriller.

Animated Feature 

Nominees: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley; “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey; “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift; “The Sea Beast,” Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger; “Turning Red,” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins.

What will win: Another strong category, but the stop-motion artistry of “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio” has a lock.

What I’d vote for: My favorite animated movie of the year is “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” one of the few movies of 2022 that made me erupt in laughter and in tears.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: “All That Breathes,” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer; “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov; “Fire of Love,” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman; “A House Made of Splinters,” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström; “Navalny,” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris.

What will win: Voting for “Navalny,” which follows the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny as he tracks down the people who poisoned him, is a way for Academy members to show their displeasure for Vladimir Putin.

What I’d vote for: Laura Poitras’ insistent “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” which chronicles the artist Nan Goldin’s extraordinary life and her determined takedown of the Sackler family for trying to whitewash their role in causing the opioid crisis by paying museums to put their name on buildings.

International Film

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany); “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina); “Close” (Belgium); “EO” (Poland); “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland).

What will win: The only one of these five with another nomination is “All Quiet on the Western Front,” and it has eight of them, including Best Picture. It’s sure to win here.

What I’d vote for: Director Jerzy Skolimowski’s heartbreakingly beautiful “EO,” following a donkey through a journey of hard knocks, is my favorite of these five.

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Part 4: The majors

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque); “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” written by Rian Johnson (based on characters created by Rian Johnson); “Living,” written by Kazuo Ishiguro (based on Akira Kurosawa’s film “Ikiru,” written by Akira Kurosawa & Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni);  “Top Gun: Maverick,” screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks (based on characters created by Jim Cash & Jack Epps Jr.); “Women Talking,” screenplay by Sarah Polley (based on the book by Miriam Toews).

What will win: Sarah Polley’s script for “Women Talking” is winning the precursor awards that usually indicate an Oscar win.

What I’d vote for: “Women Talking” was my second favorite movie of 2022, and Polley’s precise, moving screenplay is a big reason why. It’s by far the best thing in an otherwise weak category.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” written by Martin McDonagh; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert; “The Fabelmans,” written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner; “Tár,” written by Todd Field; “Triangle of Sadness,” written by Ruben Östlund.

What will win: The “most” screenplay here is “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” It’s got the win, narrowly over McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin.”

What I’d vote for: My favorite movie of 2022 was “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and the sheer inventiveness of the Daniels’ screenplay is a big part of that.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson,“The Banshees of Inisherin”; Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”;  Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”; Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Who will win: Ke Huy Quan has been the prohibitive favorite in this category throughout awards season, as much for his personal story — a former child actor who quit the business for 20 years, then lucked into the role of a lifetime — as for his multifaceted performance.

Who I’d vote for: Ke Huy Quan is bloody amazing in “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” playing multiple versions of the same character, as nerdy husband, martial-arts hero, tragic romantic figure and more.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”; Hong Chau, “The Whale”; Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Who will win: It’s between two veteran actors, either one would be considered a career-achievement prize: Bassett or Curtis. Leaning toward Bassett.

Who I’d vote for: Hsu, as the dejected daughter and scourge of the multiverse, brought a lot of layers to her breakout role, and would get my vote. (Side note: Hong Chau should have been nominated for “The Menu,” not for “The Whale,” just for the way she says “tortillas.”)

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Austin Butler, “Elvis”; Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”; Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”; Bill Nighy, “Living.”

Who will win: Fraser has been called a lock since “The Whale” came out, but I think the weaknesses in the rest of the film may work against him — and Butler’s fully inhabited portrayal of Elvis Presley may take it, especially for Academy voters who like performances that perfectly copy the mannerisms of somebody famous (e.g., Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody,” Gary Oldman in “Darkest Hour,” etc.).

Who I’d vote for: The longest of long shots, Paul Mescal as the desperate-to-please dad in “Aftersun” is the performance that sticks long after the others are forgotten.

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, “Tár”; Ana de Armas, “Blonde”; Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”; Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”; Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Who will win: For Academy voters, it comes down to Blanchett’s imperious conductor vs. Yeoh’s everywoman laundromat owner. The precursor awards suggest Yeoh will take it.

Who I’d vote for: Michelle Yeoh, who has a lifetime of stellar performances in Hong Kong cinema and Hollywood, channels everything she’s ever done into this shape-shifting performance.

Director

Nominees: Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”; Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”; Todd Field, “Tár”; Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness.”

Who will win: The Daniels have this one in the bag. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” wins here, too.

Who I’d vote for: The inventiveness of the Daniels, giving life to google-eyed rocks and swaying piñatas, is boundless.

Best Picture

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Women Talking.”

What will win: Almost never does a film win all the precursor guild awards — Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild and Screen Actors Guild — as “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has and not take the Oscar for Best Picture. So “Everything” wins the big prize.

Who I’d vote for: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” gives everything you can think of in one movie, and then adds more. It’s a visual, cerebral and emotional spectacle, and works better than a movie this deep should.

Naming the worst movies of 2022, before we, mercifully, can forget about them forever.

Following the ancient rules established for movie critics, I wrote up my top 10 movies of 2022 for The Salt Lake Tribune. (They ran in print on Christmas Day, and online the next day.)

What I didn’t include in my roundup — in the spirit of generosity and positive thinking — was my list of the worst movies of the year. I still wrote that list, because it’s cathartic for me to recall the bad stuff one last time so I can expel it from my mind palace (to borrow a phrase from “Sherlock”).

So here, in the mindset of “waste not, want not,” is my list of the worst movies of the year.

1. “Minions: The Rise of Gru” • Lots of little yellow creatures, not a single funny moment. (Michelle Yeoh, the star of my favorite movie of 2022, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” is in this, too. That’s range.)

2. “Pinocchio” • Director Robert Zemeckis, again getting lost in the technology, creates a creepy live-action and computer-animated remake of the Disney version that misses the point of what made the wooden boy human — while also leaving Tom Hanks, as Geppetto, to his worst acting impulses.

3. “Firestarter” • An 11-year-old with pyrokinetic powers is chased by shadowy government agents, in an adaptation of Stephen King’s novel that’s even less energized than the 1984 version.

4. “Samaritan” • Sylvester Stallone plays a superpowered guy reluctantly pulled from retirement in this idiotic action movie.

5. “Where the Crawdads Sing” • How many book clubs did it take to convince Hollywood to make this Southern Gothic murder mystery into a movie? Even with Daisy Edgar-Jones in the lead, it still doesn’t work.

6. “The Whale” • Brendan Fraser will likely win an Oscar for playing a self-loathing 600-pound man. Doesn’t mean the movie built around him is anything more than cliche-filled trash.

7. “Secret Headquarters” • Imagine “Spy Kids” without the charm. And with Owen Wilson.

8. “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” • Whitney Houston gets a biopic that’s so tightly controlled and so sketchily plotted (by the same guy who wrote “Bohemian Rhapsody”) that you’ll know less about the singer after the movie than you did before. 

9. “Black Adam” • I don’t blame this bloated action movie, starring Dwayne Johnson as a brooding anti-hero, for causing Warner Bros. to hit “reset” on its whole DC universe. Not that I don’t want the reset to happen, because I do. I just don’t think “Black Adam” did enough to cause it.

10. “Jurassic World Dominion” • When you have dinosaurs, why do you want to make a James Bond movie? One of the many questions this confused franchise extender left the audience pondering.

The Oscars: How many predictions did I get right?

How did I do on my Oscar predictions? Not as well as usual, with 15 right and eight wrong.

What I got right:
• Director — Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog.”
• Actress — Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.”
• Actor — Will Smith, “King Richard.”
• Supporting Actor — Troy Katsur, “CODA.”
• Supporting Actress — Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
• International Feature Film — “Drive My Car” (Japan)
• Animated Feature Film — “Encanto”
• Documentary Feature Film — “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised).”
• Film Editing — “Dune.”
• Production Design — “Dune.”
• Costume Design — “Cruella.”
• Visual Effects — “Dune”
• Sound — “Dune”
• Makeup and Hairstyling — “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.”
• Documentary Short Subject — “The Queen of Basketball.”

What I got wrong:
• Best Picture — “CODA” won; I predicted “The Power of the Dog” would win the top prize.
• Writing (Original Screenplay) — Kenneth Branagh won for “Belfast”; I predicted (narrowly) Paul Thomas Anderson for “Licorice Pizza.”
• Writing (Adapted Screenplay) — Siân Heder won for “CODA”; I predicted Jane Campion for “The Power of the Dog.”
• Cinematography — Greig Fraser won for “Dune”; I predicted (narrowly) Ari Wegner for “The Power of the Dog.”
• Music (Original Score) — Hans Zimmer won for “Dune”; I predicted (and wanted) Jonny Greenwood for “The Power of the Dog.”
• Music (Original Song) — Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell won for the title song from “No Time to Die”; I predicted Lin-Manuel Miranda for "Dos Oruguitas,” from “Encanto.”
• Short Film (Animated) — “The Windshield Wiper” won; I predicted “Robin Robin.” (I wanted “Boxballet” to win.)
• Short Film (Live-Action) — “The Long Goodbye” won (which is the one I wanted to win); I predicted “Ala Kachuu - Take and Run.”

Academy Awards: Making my fearless predictions for this year's winners

At long last, the Academy Awards will be awarded next Sunday, March 27, from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

It’s a ceremony that has already riled up hardcore movie lovers — because of the Academy’s decision to cave into ABC and hand out eight of 23 awards before the show and the winners’ speeches pre-recorded and spliced into the presentation. This is supposed to free up time to add entertainment elements that will draw more casual viewers, and improve the ratings.

Here’s my first prediction: That’s not going to work, and the ratings will continue to lag, because televised events don’t draw those kind of viewers any more — so alienating the base, the folks (like me) who watch the Oscars voraciously, will be for no good reason.

Here are more of my predictions, picking the winners in the 23 Academy Awards categories, along with what I’d vote for if I could.

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Part 1: Technical categories

Sound

Nominees • “Belfast,” Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri; “Dune,” Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett; “No Time to Die,” Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor; “The Power of the Dog,” Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb; “West Side Story,” Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy.

What will win • “Dune,” for the strange audio landscape of the Arrakis desert.

If I had a vote... • “West Side Story,” for combining the street sounds, Leonard Bernstein’s timeless music and Stephen Sondheim’s precise lyrics.

Visual Effects

Nominees • “Dune,” Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer; “Free Guy,” Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick; “No Time to Die,” Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould; “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver; “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick.

What will win • “Dune,” from the space ships to the sand worms.

If I had a vote... • “Dune,” for the impressive world-building.

Cinematography

Nominees • “Dune,” Greig Fraser; “Nightmare Alley,” Dan Laustsen; “The Power of the Dog,” Ari Wegner; “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” Bruno Delbonnel; “West Side Story,” Janusz Kaminski.

What will win • A toss-up between the desert views of “Dune” and the Western landscapes of “The Power of the Dog” — with a slight edge to Ari Wegner for “Dog,” who could become the first woman to win this category.

If I had a vote… • Wegner, for unearthing the menace under the Western vistas at the Burbank ranch.

Film Editing

Nominees • “Don’t Look Up,” Hank Corwin; “Dune,” Joe Walker; “King Richard,” Pamela Martin; “The Power of the Dog,” Peter Sciberras; “tick, tick…BOOM!,” Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum.

What will win • Another toss-up between “Dune” and “The Power of the Dog” — this time, with a slight advantage for “Dune.”

If I had a vote… • “tick, tick…BOOM!,” for deftly shuffling from Jonathan Larsen’s messy life to his musical interpretations of it.

Part 2: Craft categories

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees • “Coming 2 America,” Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer; “Cruella,” Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon; “Dune,” Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr; “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh; “House of Gucci,” Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras.

What will win • Half of Jessica Chastain’s performance in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” is re-creating the late evangelist’s trademark look.

If I had a vote… • “Cruella,” for creating a clever take on the classic Disney villainess. (Disclosure: I never did see “Coming 2 America.”)

Costume Design

Nominees • “Cruella,” Jenny Beavan; “Cyrano,” Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran; “Dune,” Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan; “Nightmare Alley,” Luis Sequeira; “West Side Story,” Paul Tazewell.

What will win • Bigger is always more likely to win in this category, so the over-the-top fashion lewks of “Cruella” will likely win.

If I had a vote… • The sharp ’50s style of “West Side Story.”

Production Design

Nominees • “Dune,” production design: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos; “Nightmare Alley,” production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau; “The Power of the Dog,” production design: Grant Major; set decoration: Amber Richards; “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” production design: Stefan Dechant; set decoration: Nancy Haigh; “West Side Story,” production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngelo.

What will win • The world-building of “Dune.”

If I had a vote… • The striking monochromatic set design of “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”

Music (Original Score)

Nominees • “Don’t Look Up,” Nicholas Britell; “Dune,” Hans Zimmer; “Encanto,” Germaine Franco; “Parallel Mothers,” Alberto Iglesias; “The Power of the Dog,” Jonny Greenwood.

Who will win • Greenwood for “The Power of the Dog.”

If I had a vote… • Greenwood — who should have been nominated for “Spencer” — subverts the expectations of Western themes with his eerie score for “The Power of the Dog.”

Music (Original Song)

Nominees • “Be Alive,” from “King Richard,” music and lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter; “Dos Oruguitas,” from “Encanto,” music and lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda; “Down to Joy,” from “Belfast,” music and lyric by Van Morrison; “No Time to Die,” from “No Time to Die,” music and lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell; “Somehow You Do,” from “Four Good Days,” music and lyric by Diane Warren.

What will win • Lin-Manuel Miranda will get his EGOT, for the song from “Encanto” — though don’t be surprised if Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (her brother) win, giving the Bond franchise its third straight win in this category.

If I had a vote… • Miranda, even if it is the wrong “Encanto” song, but we don’t talk about that (or Bruno, shhh).

Part 3: Specialties and shorts

Animated Feature Film

Nominees • “Encanto,” Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer; “Flee,” Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie; “Luca,” Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren; “The Mitchells Vs. the Machines,” Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht; “Ray and the Last Dragon,” Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho.

What will win • It’s between two family tales: Disney’s richly detailed “Encanto” and Netflix’s happily anarchic “The Mitchells vs. the Machines.” Slight edge to “Encanto.”

If I had a vote… • The animated documentary “Flee” was the best movie of 2021, and its use of animation filled in the visual gaps of a refugee’s harrowing escape from Afghanistan and Russia. 

Documentary (Feature)

Nominees • “Ascension,” Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell; “Attica,” Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry; “Flee,” Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie; “Summer of Soul (… or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised),” Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein; “Writing With Fire,” Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh.

What will win • Questlove’s “Summer of Soul” is the popular favorite.

If I had a vote… • A tough category, because all five are brilliant in their own way. But “Flee,” as I said before, is the best movie of 2021, so that’s where my vote goes.

International Feature Film

Nominees • “Drive My Car” (Japan), “Flee” (Denmark), “The Hand of God” (Italy), “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” (Bhutan), “The Worst Person in the World” (Norway).

What will win • “Drive My Car,” the one movie in this category that’s also a Best Picture nominee.

If I had a vote… • “Flee,” for the triple. But I won’t be sad if either “Drive My Car” or “The Worst Person in the World” win.

Documentary (Short Subject)

Nominees • “Audible,” Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean; “Lead Me Home,” Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk; “The Queen of Basketball,” Ben Proudfoot; “Three Songs for Benazir,” Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei; “When We Were Bullies,” Jay Rosenblatt.

What will win • “The Queen of Basketball,” a warm-hearted profile of ‘70s basketball pioneer Luisa Harris (who, among other career highlights, was drafted by the New Orleans Jazz), has the support of both Stephen Curry and Shaquille O’Neal.

If I had a vote… • Jay Rosenblatt’s introspective “When We Were Buddies,” in which the director revisits an elementary-school act of bullying.

Short Film (Animated)

Nominees • “Affairs of the Art,” Joanna Quinn and Les Mills; “Bestia,” Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz; “Boxballet,” Anton Dyakov; “Robin Robin,” Dan Ojari and Mikey Please; “The Windshield Wiper,” Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez.

What will win • The Aardman-produced “Robin Robin,” a Christmas tale that’s the only one of the five that’s suitable for young audiences.

If I had a vote… • The tender wordless romance between a gruff boxer and a lithe ballerina in “Boxballet.”

Short Film (Live Action)

Nominees • “Ala Kachuu - Take and Run,” Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger; “The Dress,” Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki; “The Long Goodbye,” Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed; “On My Mind,” Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson; “Please Hold,” K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse.

What will win • A close one, with the harrowing “Ala Kachuu - Take and Run” (about a Kyrgyz woman kidnapped into a forced marriage) edging out the immigrant drama “The Long Goodbye” (starring and co-written by Riz Ahmed). 

If I had a vote… • I’m torn between “Please Hold,” a slightly futuristic satire of criminal justice, and “The Long Goodbye,” which ends with a ferocious rap by Ahmed. I have to lean toward “The Long Goodbye.”

Part 4: The majors

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees • “CODA,” screenplay by Siân Heder (based on the film “La Famille Belle,” screenplay by Victoria Bedos & Stanislas Carré de Malberg & Éric Lartigau & Thomas Bidegain); “Drive My Car,” screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (based on a short story by Haruki Murakami); “Dune,” screenplay by Jon Spats and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth (based on the novel by Frank Herbert); “The Lost Daughter,” written by Maggie Gyllenhaal (based on the novel by Elena Ferrente); “The Power of the Dog,” written by Jane Campion (based on the novel by Thomas Savage).

What will win • Campion’s script for “The Power of the Dog” unfolds subtly, exploring the power games that cowman Phil Burbank (Benedict Cumberbatch) inflicts on his brother, new sister-in-law and nephew.

If I had a vote… • Gyllenhaal, in her writing-directing debut, explores the pain and uncertainty of motherhood in a luminous adaptation of Ferrante’s “The Lost Daughter.”

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees • “Belfast,” written by Kenneth Branagh; “Don’t Look Up,” screenplay by Adam McKay, story by Adam McKay & David Sirota; “King Richard,” written by Zach Baylin; “Licorice Pizza,” written by Paul Thomas Anderson; “The Worst Person in the World,” written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier.

What will win • Which memory play will win? I think Anderson’s well-observed California vignettes in “Licorice Pizza” will win out over Branagh’s sentimental childhood recollections in “Belfast.”

If I had a vote… • “The Worst Person in the World,” for a precisely realized look at a woman in her quarter-life crisis.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees • Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”; Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”; Judi Dench, “Belfast”; Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”; Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard.”

Who will win • Ariana DeBose, so dynamic as Anita in “West Side Story,” is a shoo-in. (Fun fact: She’ll win for the same role that won it for Rita Moreno in this category in 1961.)

If I had a vote… • I loved DeBose, but I’d give my vote to Buckley, for exploring parental guilt and infidelity in “The Lost Daughter.”

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees • Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”; Troy Kotsur, “CODA”; Jesse Clemons, “The Power of the Dog”; J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”; Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog.”

Who will win • Kotsur has been sweeping the precursor award shows, and is the favorite here, becoming the first deaf actor to win the category.

If I had a vote… • I’d vote for Kotsur, who is the gruff heart of Siân Heder’s charming family drama.

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees • Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”; Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”; Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick...BOOM!”; Will Smith, “King Richard”; Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”

Who will win • Will Smith is the popular choice for “King Richard.”

If I had a vote… • Denzel Washington gives a soulful, tortured Macbeth, in one of the best performances of his career.

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees • Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”; Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”; Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”; Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”; Kristen Stewart, “Spencer.”

Who will win • Jessica Chastain has been winning the precursor awards for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” in another example of Oscar voters going for the biggest performance.

If I had a vote… • Stewart’s take on Princess Diana in “Spencer” is not just an impersonation, but an intimate exploration of what made the sensitive royal tick.

Directing

Nominees • Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”; Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”; Steven Spielberg, ”West Side Story.”

Who will win • Campion’s dark, oddly tender take on the Western in “The Power of the Dog” may not have made Sam Elliott happy, but it’s a worthy directing effort.

If I had a vote… • As much as I loved “The Power of the Dog,” I’d pick Hamaguchi for directing with such subtle power in “Drive My Car.”

Best Picture

Nominees • “Belfast,” Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, producers; “CODA,” Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, producers; “Don’t Look Up,” Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, producers; “Drive My Car,” Teruhisa Yamamoto, producer; “Dune,” Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, producers; “King Richard,” Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, producers; “Licorice Pizza,” Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers; “Nightmare Alley,” Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, producers; “The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, producers; “West Side Story,” Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, producers.

What will win • There’s been a late surge of speculation that “CODA” could surprise on Oscar night, but I think that’s prognosticators trying to generate excitement in the race’s final days. It’s too little, too late, though, and “The Power of the Dog” will win the top prize.

If I had a vote… • My pick is “Drive My Car,” a quietly luminous story of grief and artistic creativity.

Works by a major Japanese-American artist — including images he created at the Topaz internment camp during World War II — will become part of the Utah Museum of Fine Arts' permanent collection

Three years ago, the Utah Museum of Fine Arts presented an exhibition of the work of Japanese-American artist Chiura Obata — a leading member of the California art scene of the 1930s, who also captured some stirring images of the Topaz Relocation Center in Utah, where he was imprisoned for 8 months during World War II.

Since 2017, when museum officials were working to bring the touring exhibition to Utah, curators also were working to convince Obata’s estate to make UMFA a permanent home for some of his work. That effort paid off in December, when the museum announced it had aquired 35 of Obata’s work for its permanent collection.

Read more about the acquisition, and Obata’s connection to Utah, in my article for sltrib.com.

(I have a tangential connection to Obata, which once again shows we live in a small world. The artist and his family left Topaz in 1943, to live with Obata’s oldest son, Gyo, in St. Louis. Gyo was entering Washington University to study architecture. Sometime after the war, Gyo Obata and two of his classmates formed an architectural firm, Hellmuth Obata and Kassebaum — now known simply as HOK, and one of the most important architectural firms in the world. My late uncle, Jim Henrekin, was a protege of Gyo Obata, and worked his career at HOK, first in St. Louis and then in their San Francisco office.)

Utah Film Critics Association gives its top award to 'The Power of the Dog'

Before the holidays, the members of the Utah Film Critics Association gathered in person (with one member hooked in via Zoom) to decide what movies and people would receive the group’s awards for 2021.

The top winner was director Jane Campion’s dark Western “The Power of the Dog.” Not only did it win Best Picture, but it won honors for Campion’s direction, for its editing and for Jonny Greenwood’s score.

For all the winners, read my roundup for sltrib.com.

Utah Symphony will play an epic work, inspired by Utah's natural beauty, within view of Zion National Park

It’s one of the most challenging works in the classical canyon — a 90-minute epic work written to evoke Utah’s natural beauty, and requiring an unusual orchestral set-up. And the Utah Symphony will be performing it within sight of some of the beauty that inspired it.

The Utah Symphony announced in December that it would be performing Olivier Messiaen’s 12-movement epic “Des canyons aux étoiles …” (“From the Canyons to the Stars …”) on June 2, 2022, at the O.C. Tanner Amphitheater in Springdale, just outside Zion National Park.

“I always wondered: Why is this piece never performed in Utah?,” conductor and musical director Thierry Fischer told me in 2019. “If one symphony should symbolically own the piece in America, it’s the Utah Symphony.”

Fischer had planned to have the symphony perform the work in installments during the 2019-2020 season — but the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the cancellation of half the concerts where the movements would have been played.

Read more about the symphony’s plans for the concert, in this article for sltrib.com.

Ken Sanders prepares to move his bookstore into The Leonardo, now that the city has approved

When Ken Sanders — the garrulous and cantankerous Salt Lake City bookstore owner — took me on a tour of the new space he’s soon to occupy in The Leonardo museum, my colleague, photographer Leah Hogsten, made a great observation: That with his long beard and halo of white hair, Sanders somewhat resembles a self-portrait of the museum’s namesake, Leonardo da Vinci.

After two years of planning, and six months of waiting for Salt Lake City (which owns the building in which The Leo sits) to finalize its decision, Sanders is getting ready to move his namesake bookstore into three floors of the museum at 205 E. 500 South, in Library Square.

The building Sanders currently occupies is slated for demolition, to make way for more apartment buildings.

Here’s my story, for sltrib.com, about Sanders’ plans for moving into the space in 2022.

The ups and downs of the COVID-19 pandemic, as fall slides into winter

The ups and downs, the surges and uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic continued through the fall and winter of 2021 — leaving all of us as confused and concerned as we were when the pandemic began in March 2020.

But now we have a vaccine, which is a major difference. I wrote about incentive plans to get public employees to get vaccinated — those covered by the state of Utah’s insurance plan, and all Salt Lake County employees. I wrote about booster shots, the advice to take the one you got the first go-round (though don’t sweat it if you switch up), and the state of Utah expanding their availability. And I wrote it up when Dr. Andrew Pavia, who had seen what COVID-19 can do to kids in his work at Primary Children’s Hospital, urged parents to get their young children the vaccine — and I was in the room when some of the first Utah kids got their shots.

In September, Intermountain Healthcare hospitals started delaying surgeries that could be postponed, to save room in intensive care units for COVID-19 cases — and I talked to a man waiting for a kidney transplant who was briefly taken off a national registry because of the COVID-19 problems.

Also in September, my colleague Erin Alberty and I talked to families who had relatives who refused to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and then died from the disease — leaving their loved ones to process the blame and regrets.

In early October, public health experts in Utah held out hope that case counts had hit a plateau. By the end of October, case counts were spiking again (Erin and I again collaborated on a story about where that was happening). By the end of November, we had a new worry — the variant called omicron — though even as it arrived in the state, Utah doctors warned that the delta variant was still kicking our butts.

The pandemic took me in some odd areas this fall. I wrote about COVID-19 hitting the African lions at Hogle Zoo, and I wrote it up when Utah native Derek Hough came down with COVID-19 just ahead of the season finale of “Dancing With the Stars.”

And I got to meet (via Zoom) Whitney Call and Mallory Everton, the funny and charming alumnae of the BYUtv sketch comedy series “Studio C,” who made their first movie, “Stop and Go,” a road-trip comedy set during the early days of the pandemic. (Seek out the movie on demand; it’s really quite funny.)