At long last, the Academy Awards will be awarded next Sunday, March 27, from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

It’s a ceremony that has already riled up hardcore movie lovers — because of the Academy’s decision to cave into ABC and hand out eight of 23 awards before the show and the winners’ speeches pre-recorded and spliced into the presentation. This is supposed to free up time to add entertainment elements that will draw more casual viewers, and improve the ratings.

Here’s my first prediction: That’s not going to work, and the ratings will continue to lag, because televised events don’t draw those kind of viewers any more — so alienating the base, the folks (like me) who watch the Oscars voraciously, will be for no good reason.

Here are more of my predictions, picking the winners in the 23 Academy Awards categories, along with what I’d vote for if I could.

———

Part 1: Technical categories

Sound

Nominees • “Belfast,” Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri; “Dune,” Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett; “No Time to Die,” Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor; “The Power of the Dog,” Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb; “West Side Story,” Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy.

What will win • “Dune,” for the strange audio landscape of the Arrakis desert.

If I had a vote... • “West Side Story,” for combining the street sounds, Leonard Bernstein’s timeless music and Stephen Sondheim’s precise lyrics.

Visual Effects

Nominees • “Dune,” Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer; “Free Guy,” Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick; “No Time to Die,” Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould; “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver; “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick.

What will win • “Dune,” from the space ships to the sand worms.

If I had a vote... • “Dune,” for the impressive world-building.

Cinematography

Nominees • “Dune,” Greig Fraser; “Nightmare Alley,” Dan Laustsen; “The Power of the Dog,” Ari Wegner; “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” Bruno Delbonnel; “West Side Story,” Janusz Kaminski.

What will win • A toss-up between the desert views of “Dune” and the Western landscapes of “The Power of the Dog” — with a slight edge to Ari Wegner for “Dog,” who could become the first woman to win this category.

If I had a vote… • Wegner, for unearthing the menace under the Western vistas at the Burbank ranch.

Film Editing

Nominees • “Don’t Look Up,” Hank Corwin; “Dune,” Joe Walker; “King Richard,” Pamela Martin; “The Power of the Dog,” Peter Sciberras; “tick, tick…BOOM!,” Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum.

What will win • Another toss-up between “Dune” and “The Power of the Dog” — this time, with a slight advantage for “Dune.”

If I had a vote… • “tick, tick…BOOM!,” for deftly shuffling from Jonathan Larsen’s messy life to his musical interpretations of it.

Part 2: Craft categories

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees • “Coming 2 America,” Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer; “Cruella,” Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon; “Dune,” Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr; “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh; “House of Gucci,” Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras.

What will win • Half of Jessica Chastain’s performance in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” is re-creating the late evangelist’s trademark look.

If I had a vote… • “Cruella,” for creating a clever take on the classic Disney villainess. (Disclosure: I never did see “Coming 2 America.”)

Costume Design

Nominees • “Cruella,” Jenny Beavan; “Cyrano,” Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran; “Dune,” Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan; “Nightmare Alley,” Luis Sequeira; “West Side Story,” Paul Tazewell.

What will win • Bigger is always more likely to win in this category, so the over-the-top fashion lewks of “Cruella” will likely win.

If I had a vote… • The sharp ’50s style of “West Side Story.”

Production Design

Nominees • “Dune,” production design: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos; “Nightmare Alley,” production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau; “The Power of the Dog,” production design: Grant Major; set decoration: Amber Richards; “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” production design: Stefan Dechant; set decoration: Nancy Haigh; “West Side Story,” production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngelo.

What will win • The world-building of “Dune.”

If I had a vote… • The striking monochromatic set design of “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”

Music (Original Score)

Nominees • “Don’t Look Up,” Nicholas Britell; “Dune,” Hans Zimmer; “Encanto,” Germaine Franco; “Parallel Mothers,” Alberto Iglesias; “The Power of the Dog,” Jonny Greenwood.

Who will win • Greenwood for “The Power of the Dog.”

If I had a vote… • Greenwood — who should have been nominated for “Spencer” — subverts the expectations of Western themes with his eerie score for “The Power of the Dog.”

Music (Original Song)

Nominees • “Be Alive,” from “King Richard,” music and lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter; “Dos Oruguitas,” from “Encanto,” music and lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda; “Down to Joy,” from “Belfast,” music and lyric by Van Morrison; “No Time to Die,” from “No Time to Die,” music and lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell; “Somehow You Do,” from “Four Good Days,” music and lyric by Diane Warren.

What will win • Lin-Manuel Miranda will get his EGOT, for the song from “Encanto” — though don’t be surprised if Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (her brother) win, giving the Bond franchise its third straight win in this category.

If I had a vote… • Miranda, even if it is the wrong “Encanto” song, but we don’t talk about that (or Bruno, shhh).

Part 3: Specialties and shorts

Animated Feature Film

Nominees • “Encanto,” Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer; “Flee,” Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie; “Luca,” Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren; “The Mitchells Vs. the Machines,” Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht; “Ray and the Last Dragon,” Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho.

What will win • It’s between two family tales: Disney’s richly detailed “Encanto” and Netflix’s happily anarchic “The Mitchells vs. the Machines.” Slight edge to “Encanto.”

If I had a vote… • The animated documentary “Flee” was the best movie of 2021, and its use of animation filled in the visual gaps of a refugee’s harrowing escape from Afghanistan and Russia.

Documentary (Feature)

Nominees • “Ascension,” Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell; “Attica,” Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry; “Flee,” Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie; “Summer of Soul (… or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised),” Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein; “Writing With Fire,” Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh.

What will win • Questlove’s “Summer of Soul” is the popular favorite.

If I had a vote… • A tough category, because all five are brilliant in their own way. But “Flee,” as I said before, is the best movie of 2021, so that’s where my vote goes.

International Feature Film

Nominees • “Drive My Car” (Japan), “Flee” (Denmark), “The Hand of God” (Italy), “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” (Bhutan), “The Worst Person in the World” (Norway).

What will win • “Drive My Car,” the one movie in this category that’s also a Best Picture nominee.

If I had a vote… • “Flee,” for the triple. But I won’t be sad if either “Drive My Car” or “The Worst Person in the World” win.

Documentary (Short Subject)

Nominees • “Audible,” Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean; “Lead Me Home,” Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk; “The Queen of Basketball,” Ben Proudfoot; “Three Songs for Benazir,” Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei; “When We Were Bullies,” Jay Rosenblatt.

What will win • “The Queen of Basketball,” a warm-hearted profile of ‘70s basketball pioneer Luisa Harris (who, among other career highlights, was drafted by the New Orleans Jazz), has the support of both Stephen Curry and Shaquille O’Neal.

If I had a vote… • Jay Rosenblatt’s introspective “When We Were Buddies,” in which the director revisits an elementary-school act of bullying.

Short Film (Animated)

Nominees • “Affairs of the Art,” Joanna Quinn and Les Mills; “Bestia,” Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz; “Boxballet,” Anton Dyakov; “Robin Robin,” Dan Ojari and Mikey Please; “The Windshield Wiper,” Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez.

What will win • The Aardman-produced “Robin Robin,” a Christmas tale that’s the only one of the five that’s suitable for young audiences.

If I had a vote… • The tender wordless romance between a gruff boxer and a lithe ballerina in “Boxballet.”

Short Film (Live Action)

Nominees • “Ala Kachuu - Take and Run,” Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger; “The Dress,” Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki; “The Long Goodbye,” Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed; “On My Mind,” Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson; “Please Hold,” K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse.

What will win • A close one, with the harrowing “Ala Kachuu - Take and Run” (about a Kyrgyz woman kidnapped into a forced marriage) edging out the immigrant drama “The Long Goodbye” (starring and co-written by Riz Ahmed).

If I had a vote… • I’m torn between “Please Hold,” a slightly futuristic satire of criminal justice, and “The Long Goodbye,” which ends with a ferocious rap by Ahmed. I have to lean toward “The Long Goodbye.”

Part 4: The majors

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees • “CODA,” screenplay by Siân Heder (based on the film “La Famille Belle,” screenplay by Victoria Bedos & Stanislas Carré de Malberg & Éric Lartigau & Thomas Bidegain); “Drive My Car,” screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (based on a short story by Haruki Murakami); “Dune,” screenplay by Jon Spats and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth (based on the novel by Frank Herbert); “The Lost Daughter,” written by Maggie Gyllenhaal (based on the novel by Elena Ferrente); “The Power of the Dog,” written by Jane Campion (based on the novel by Thomas Savage).

What will win • Campion’s script for “The Power of the Dog” unfolds subtly, exploring the power games that cowman Phil Burbank (Benedict Cumberbatch) inflicts on his brother, new sister-in-law and nephew.

If I had a vote… • Gyllenhaal, in her writing-directing debut, explores the pain and uncertainty of motherhood in a luminous adaptation of Ferrante’s “The Lost Daughter.”

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees • “Belfast,” written by Kenneth Branagh; “Don’t Look Up,” screenplay by Adam McKay, story by Adam McKay & David Sirota; “King Richard,” written by Zach Baylin; “Licorice Pizza,” written by Paul Thomas Anderson; “The Worst Person in the World,” written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier.

What will win • Which memory play will win? I think Anderson’s well-observed California vignettes in “Licorice Pizza” will win out over Branagh’s sentimental childhood recollections in “Belfast.”

If I had a vote… • “The Worst Person in the World,” for a precisely realized look at a woman in her quarter-life crisis.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees • Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”; Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”; Judi Dench, “Belfast”; Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”; Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard.”

Who will win • Ariana DeBose, so dynamic as Anita in “West Side Story,” is a shoo-in. (Fun fact: She’ll win for the same role that won it for Rita Moreno in this category in 1961.)

If I had a vote… • I loved DeBose, but I’d give my vote to Buckley, for exploring parental guilt and infidelity in “The Lost Daughter.”

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees • Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”; Troy Kotsur, “CODA”; Jesse Clemons, “The Power of the Dog”; J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”; Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog.”

Who will win • Kotsur has been sweeping the precursor award shows, and is the favorite here, becoming the first deaf actor to win the category.

If I had a vote… • I’d vote for Kotsur, who is the gruff heart of Siân Heder’s charming family drama.

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees • Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”; Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”; Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick...BOOM!”; Will Smith, “King Richard”; Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”

Who will win • Will Smith is the popular choice for “King Richard.”

If I had a vote… • Denzel Washington gives a soulful, tortured Macbeth, in one of the best performances of his career.

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees • Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”; Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”; Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”; Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”; Kristen Stewart, “Spencer.”

Who will win • Jessica Chastain has been winning the precursor awards for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” in another example of Oscar voters going for the biggest performance.

If I had a vote… • Stewart’s take on Princess Diana in “Spencer” is not just an impersonation, but an intimate exploration of what made the sensitive royal tick.

Directing

Nominees • Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”; Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”; Steven Spielberg, ”West Side Story.”

Who will win • Campion’s dark, oddly tender take on the Western in “The Power of the Dog” may not have made Sam Elliott happy, but it’s a worthy directing effort.

If I had a vote… • As much as I loved “The Power of the Dog,” I’d pick Hamaguchi for directing with such subtle power in “Drive My Car.”

Best Picture

Nominees • “Belfast,” Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, producers; “CODA,” Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, producers; “Don’t Look Up,” Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, producers; “Drive My Car,” Teruhisa Yamamoto, producer; “Dune,” Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, producers; “King Richard,” Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, producers; “Licorice Pizza,” Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers; “Nightmare Alley,” Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, producers; “The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, producers; “West Side Story,” Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, producers.

What will win • There’s been a late surge of speculation that “CODA” could surprise on Oscar night, but I think that’s prognosticators trying to generate excitement in the race’s final days. It’s too little, too late, though, and “The Power of the Dog” will win the top prize.

If I had a vote… • My pick is “Drive My Car,” a quietly luminous story of grief and artistic creativity.